But when they say the Grand National is a lottery, they couldn't be more wrong.
OK, 30 unique, demanding fences have to be negotiated over the marathon trip of 4m4f.
But a little known fact is that some remarkably consistent statistical trends have emerged over the years.
And these trends are sure to help you when sifting through the 40 runners to find the winner of Saturday's £700,000 renewal at Aintree.
Consider this.....

ALL of the last ten winners have carried between 10st and 11st 1lb;
NINE of the last ten winners have carried a maximum of 10st 12lb;
ALL of the last ten winners have been on an official handicap mark of between 136 and 149;
ALL of the last ten winners ran in the previous 49 days;
EVERY winner since 1970 has been proven over at least 3m;
ONLY two eight-year-olds have won since 1983;
ONLY one seven-year-old has completed the course since 1994;
NO HORSE aged six, seven, 13 or 14 has won since 1988;
ONLY one horse wearing headgear (blinkers, visor or cheekpieces) has won in the last 35 years;
ALL but two of the winners since 1990 have come from the top eight in the betting market;
ALL of the last 13 winners had won at least one Class A or Class 1 (ie: Graded or Listed) race previously;
NO French-bred horse has won in the last 98 years;
ONLY four of the last 26 favourites have won;
FIVE of the last six winners had tackled the Aintree fences before;
NO novices have won since 1958;
IRISH-trained horses have won five of the last eight renewals.

So, when we throw all the stats into the National 2007 pot and stir them vigorously, what concoction do we come up with?
The clear pick is POINT BARROW. Trained in Ireland by Pat Hughes, he won the Irish National last season, he's the ideal age (nine), carrying the ideal weight (10-12) and on a perfect handicap mark of 144.
His performances this season suggest he's back to the best form of his novice days when he won Grade Two and Grade Three races and he's sure to appreciate the prevailing Good ground. What's more, a prep race over hurdles only three weeks ago should have him in fine fettle.
The persuasive stats suggest that others to consider for the big race include MCKELVEY, JOES EDGE, BEWLEYS BERRY, LONGSHANKS and ZABENZ.
McKelvey jumped the Aintree fences really well when a staying-on sixth in a race there last November and is only 6lbs higher than when winning the Summer National at Uttoxeter last year. He will relish both the trip and the ground and has sneaked in towards the bottom of the handicap off 10st 4lb.
Joes Edge is not quite on a mark high enough for our trends but he comes into the race in prime form, having won at the Cheltenham Festival last month.
As a former Scottish National winner, he's sure to get the trip and will love the Good going. Furthermore, he was in the process of running a big race last year, off 6lbs higher, when sustaining a minor injury and coming home seventh on ground too soft.
Bewleys Berry took to the Aintree fences like a duck to water when finishing second there last November. An exuberant jumper, the nine-year-old was a Grade Two winner over hurdles and will also enjoy the ground. The only doubts concern his stamina.
Longshanks also has valuable experience of these fences in his locker and definitely stays at least 4m. The ten-year-old has been prepared specifically for the race by Kim Bailey, who saddled Mr Frisk, the fastest-ever National winner in 1990.
Zabenz is a real dark one at 50/1 and hasn't been seen on a racecourse since December. But he's another who will relish both trip and ground and on a line through BILLYVODDAN, who ran so well at the Cheltenham Festival, he could be well handicapped, if you can forgive the fact that he sports blinkers, which rarely work here.
Billyvoddan is a horse I have enormous respect for but owes his recent improvement to the application of blinkers. Further negatives are his relative inexperience and the fact that he's probably carrying a shade too much weight.
SIMON is a similarly fast-improving handicapper, blessed with an abundance of stamina. But he too has shot up the weights and is 13lbs higher than when only sixth in the Welsh National in December.
IDLE TALK has always been considered a National type and would be a fairytale winner for his new handler, Donald McCain, son of Ginger, who trained the legendary Red Rum. The ground won't bother him but he might be a bit too high in the handicap and he didn't appear to stay the trip in last year's Scottish National.
EUROTREK and former winner HEDGEHUNTER are both proven over the Aintree fences but are burdened with huge weights
While several other fancied runners would appear to need softer ground, most notably the ante-post favourite DUN DOIRE and last year's winner NUMBERSIXVALVERDE.
Of the others with an each/way squeak, I am interested in SLIM PICKINGS from the yard of Tom Taaffe. He caught the eye at the Cheltenham Festival and is bred to come into his own over this long trip.
Best of luck – and don't forget the supporting card over the three days of the National meeting, which has developed into a fantastic festival in its own right.

SIX FOR THE GRAND NATIONAL
Aintree, Saturday 4.15

POINT BARROW
MCKELVEY
BEWLEYS BERRY
JOES EDGE
LONGSHANKS


sport@rhnews.co.uk